Reflections on my New Hampshire Internship

At one point in my internship I compared my New Hampshire experience to my initiation week when I joined a fraternity. Back then I referred to initiation week as "one of the best experiences of my life which I would prefer to never endure again." I was wrong; less than one week later I am already missing the campaign trail.

As much as I love the wonderful weather in Florida, there is so much I miss about New Hampshire. I miss the good-spirited people that listened to what I had to say, even though they had been hearing much of it for over a year. I miss the engaged electorate, the honking horns of cars passing by, and the intensity of people's convictions...even the convictions of those supporting other candidates. I miss the late night discussions with my classmates about the candidates and campaigns. I am sure I could go on...

Less than a week after arriving home I find myself looking over the list of places which will vote on Super Duper Tuesday and tracking down my new friends from the trenches of Nashua. Most appear to be headed for New Jersey, but there are also others in Connecticut and Massachusetts. It may be time to cash in those frequent flyer miles, pack my bags, and put those boots I bought a few weeks ago back to work. I will probably decide in a few days. Once I decide, I'll come back and post it here. Anyone else interested in going on the road?

Day Ten Recap - Tuesday, January 8th (Election Day)

This picture is of me with my fellow USF intern, Debbie, and our new friend, Kim, at Hillary's victory party on election night in Manchester.

This is a video of Hillary's victory speech on election night in Manchester, NH.

Tuesday, Election Day, was everything I thought it would be and more! Our wake-up call came at 3:30 am, which was a little rough considering I had arrived back at the hotel after midnight. I decided to walk downstairs and get some fresh air.

When I opened the door to the hotel hallway, a copy of Tuesday's USA Today was located by our door. I picked it up, and, to my dismay, I found a new New Hampshire poll on the front page. I didn't write down the exact numbers, but I believe it was something along the lines of Obama 42, Clinton 29. There were a few other polls floating around that showed Obama opening up a lead, yet there were a few others that showed Senator Clinton down 3-6 points. I had not seen any polls over the past few days with Senator Clinton in the lead.

It was definitely deflating to see that poll, but I did remember back in 2000 that the New Hampshire polls showed George Bush and John McCain deadlocked going into the primary. McCain won that race by a 49%-31% margin. There was a little hope for us; also, despite the polls showing us losing ground, this was completely unnoticeable on the ground on Sunday and Monday. The crowd at the Nashua high school on Sunday was overflowing; there were thousands of people in line to get in to the event. Furthermore, while doing visibility, we were getting "honks" at a rate of 3-1 or better from drivers when we were situated near the Obama folks, primarily from women. While I was skeptical of anyone that suggested that we were leading or that we would win, I did feel that we would not do quite as poorly as the polls suggested.

Our ride showed up a little later than expected and we did not get into the office until about 6 am. We were given a list of supporters and some door hangers to place on their doornobs, reminding them to vote. After lunch we were dispatched to a polling location in Nashua to do visibility. We were expected to do well in Nashua, but I was floored by the response we were getting while waving our signs along a busy intersection. There were about a dozen Obama volunteers/staff and only three of us, yet we were getting almost all of the honks! It seemed like every woman between 30-60 was honking when passing us by. I ended up making a phone call to someone I knew "in the know" and was told that, according to their numbers, we were within two percent of Obama based on exit interviews. At that point, I think all three of us got a second wind and we did not let up for a minute. In fact, after we went back canvassing, we practically had to restrain Debbie at 7:55 pm so we could go back to the office :) I was practically a cripple by the time we got back into the office. (I had blisters on both feet and a pretty bad knee sprain that was acting up from a few days before.)

One other note too...we were checking on supporters to make sure if they voted on foot (and practically stalked the homes of those not home); out of the 50-75 houses I visited personally, only one had not voted and they were just waiting for their wife to come home from work. (I later saw them walking to their polling location, which was only a few blocks away from their house.) At this point, I knew we were in the game. We were getting our vote out!

Most of our USF crew was too exhausted to hang around, so they went back to the hotel to watch the results come in on election night. Me and Debbie hung around the Nashua VFW post, our staging ground for the day, to hear the local results. Hillary carried all nine wards in Nashua and received 118% of the vote goal set for the local office! Also, despite results coming in from rural areas, suburbs, and college towns, Senator Clinton's lead was holding up. Debbie, our friend Kim from Nashua, and I decided to go up to Manchester for the victory rally, having faith that we were going to win. About midway to Manchester one of the major news networks called the race for Hillary! WOOOHOOOOOO!

I also wanted to take a minute to say something about our new friend Kim. A lot has been said about how Barack Obama has inspired young people to vote and/or caucus in large numbers and there is certainly a lot of truth to it. But there's another story here as well. Kim had never voted in her life. She heard Hillary speak and it inspired her to act. She registered to vote, volunteered for the campaign regularly (long before we were around), and she even took a friend with her to the polls. Senator Clinton has inspired new voters as well; I think many of the pundits mistakenly thought that Obama had a monopoly on these new voters. Something special happened in New Hampshire, and almost all of us (including myself to a degree), didn't see it coming!

Day Nine Recap - Monday, January 7th (Election Eve)

This is an example of what visibility is like. This photo is not of any of the USF crew, but it is a video of a group of Hillary supporters at one of our key "vis" locations, "Library Hill" in downtown Nashua, NH. Too bad these folks weren't doing any of the Hillary chants though.

This is a video with some clips from Hillary's last rally before election day at the Manchester, NH airport.

Monday, Election Eve, was a beautiful day. Sure, it was a bit cloudy, but it was pushing 50 degrees. After experiencing some really nasty weather around the middle of last week, this was a Godsend. We spent most of the day canvassing key neighborhoods in Nashua, but there were a few different things we did too.

While we were picking up a canvassing packet around noon, we were told that a huge herd of Obama folks were up on Library Hill and they were really loud. (There's more about Library Hill in another blog entry.) We had a few people across the street from Obama's people but they were overwhelmed. About 20-25 of us were immediately sent up to Library Hill with reinforcements (signs, totems, etc.). We ended up drowning out the Obama people and they eventually left :) We then took their ideal position on Library Hill and kept about a dozen people on site to make sure we held it all the way through the rush hour.

Also, once we were done canvassing for the day, a bunch of us went up to the Manchester, NH airport to attend Hillary's late night rally, her last of the campaign in New Hampshire prior to the opening of the polls. It was nice to hear her speak and remind us all why we were up there working so hard for her election.

Day Eight Recap - Sunday, January 6th

Hillary was drawing huge crowds all weekend even though the polls showed Obama opening up a big lead. Here's some footage of the line to get into her Sunday event at a Nashua, NH high school.

Things were really getting fired up on Sunday around the campaign office. Volunteers and staff were treated to some brief speeches by officeholders present to fire up the troops. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa gave an impassioned speech in the basement of Hillary's Nashua headquarters; he was also joined by Congressman Frank Pallone (D-NJ) and a few members of the Massachusetts legislature. When we were leaving the office, Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) was also walking up to the office.

On Sunday, Emilio and I had the pleasure of working with a nice woman named Kim; I'll write more about her later. We did visibility at the Nashua high school where Hillary was holding her afternoon event and we also attended the event as well. Things were a bit different compared to the Friday morning rally. Hillary was more proactive at differentiating her record and experience with that of Senator Obama. Furthermore, she took dozens of questions from the audience. In fact, my feet were sore from standing through the whole thing! The questions were diverse but she handled them all like a candidate with a great command of the issues.

After the Hillary event, we spent most of the day canvassing some middle-class wards in Nashua and we finished up the night doing counter-visibility across the street from John Edwards' Meet and Greet event at Martha's Exchange, a popular Nashua restaurant. (They deserved it too; they were passing out flyers outside the Clinton afternoon event.)

Day Seven Recap - Saturday, January 5th

Believe it or not, this was the hotel I was staying at in Nashua along with my other classmates and about 75 members of the Arkansas Travelers, a group of Hillary supporters from Arkansas. You can read the Nashua Telegraph article here.

We began Saturday by having Professor Dante Scala, author of one of the books we have read for this class, lead us in a discussion of his theory of New Hampshire presidential primaries. During our discussion, the fire alarm in the hotel went off; however, we were assured that the fire was contained and we continued class. After our discussion we were dropped off at our campaigns and I didn't dwell on the fire much.

The campaign office was buzzing like never before. There must have been 200 or so people in the office and dozens more in buses outside the office. People had come in from the Boston, New York City, and Washington DC areas, among others, to work on Hillary's campaign for the day and get out the vote! People were constantly coming and going and I wouldn't be surprised if 500 or more volunteers came through our office on Saturday.

The five of us were put on a bus with a group of people that came in from Cape Cod for the day; however, before getting out to our destination, we found out that the hotel fire had spread and we were without a place to stay. We were brought back to the hotel and gathered our things. We were then moved to a Radisson hotel in northern Massachusetts for the remainder of our trip. I was lucky to get all of my belongings and they were okay, but many of my classmates had items damaged from the water the firefighters used to control the blaze.

As far as campaigning goes, the day was a total loss; however, as a result, I was able to watch the debates that night with my classmates from the other campaigns. We were also able to have dinner with one of our classmates, Rebekah, and celebrate her 19th birthday with her :)

Day Six Recap - Friday, January 4th

This is the WMUR (Manchester, NH) coverage of Hillary's rally at the Nashua airport on January 4th, the day after the Iowa caucuses.

Senator Clinton posed for a picture with USF Team Hillary at her rally in Nashua on Friday morning.


While the senator was speaking, Former President Clinton was listening to her while standing just a few feet away from us.


This is a picture of me and a friend, Adam, doing visibility at Library Hill in downtown New Hampshire.

Friday was intense! We were picked up at 6:15 am to go do visibility out at the Nashua airport before Senator Clinton's morning rally. It was 4 degrees with a -14 degree wind chill factor. We went inside after a few hours and luckily secured an awesome spot at the front of the venue, right next to where the Clintons were due to come into the building. All five us shook the hands of Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea and had our pictures taken with them. The television camera does not do Senator Clinton justice. After hearing her speak in person, I was incredibly impressed and certain that I had made the right choice when choosing a candidate. She is clearly ready for this job and I have no doubts.

After the rally, we returned to headquarters in Nashua and were dispatched to Library Hill (in downtown Nashua) to do some visibility work with our totems. About 1 pm we were whisked away in a van to do visibility outside the location of the state Democratic party's "100 Club" dinner. After returning to the hotel I was exhausted and fell asleep fully clothed on top of my bed with no blankets. I did not wake up until it was almost time to leave the next morning.

Day Five Recap - Thursday, January 3rd

On caucus night, Hillary showed that she is a candidate with class in her concession speech in Iowa.

Remember how I said that Wednesday was very cold? I take that back. Thursday was much, much worse. In fact, we didn't even go canvassing during the day on Thursday. We phone banked all day, which, I must say, truly stunk. It became painfully obvious that New Hampshire residents were getting tired of all the phone calls from the different campaigns.

We also found out that Hillary is going to be at the Nashua airport on Thursday morning for her first rally in New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses! We dropped off some flyers at the homes of supporters that lived out by the airport and finished up the night of work a bit early. We then met up with the class to watch the caucus results come in over dinner. Unfortunately, Hillary finished third, but, as a friend said, "Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents!"

Day Four Recap - Wednesday, January 2nd

When I woke up this morning I was sick as a dog. Sore throat, cough, chest congestion, stuffed-up nose were among my symptoms. Despite that, I just took some over-the-counter meds and pressed forward.

The class went up to Concord this morning and visited the Republican and Democratic state party headquarters, as well as the New Hampshire Primary exhibit at the state library. We had some discussion about the new civil unions law with the state Democratic chair and we discussed the exclusion of minor candidates from debates with his Republican counterpart.

There wasn't much glamor at the campaign today...just hard work on a very cold day. The campaign let us use a van they had rented and the five of us on Hillary's campaign worked with a delightful and interesting Nashua resident, Evie. Early in the day there was some decision on how to divide up the houses to visit, so I tried to take charge a bit. In return, I was dubbed "Chavez", after Venezuela's president/dictator, Hugo Chavez.

Day Three Recap - Tuesday, January 1st

This is a pic of USF Team Hillary building totems for sign-waving!

I just finished a very long day a short time ago. We had class today at 8 am over breakfast and listened to a discussion between our professor and an University of Iowa professor about the Iowa caucuses and how they operate. Afterwards we headed out to our respective campaigns and our team arrived at Hillary's Nashua headquarters shortly before 10 am. We did some light office tasks and put together some signs for sign waving (visibility) until 12 pm; at that time we broke into teams and went canvassing.

We finished canvassing about 8:30-8:45 pm and came back to the office. Shortly thereafter we had dinner at hq, helped out with various tasks around the office, and put together the rest of the signs for visibility. We finished working for the night at 10:30 pm...nearly a 13 hour day of work!

Day Two Recap - Monday, December 31st

The USF Road to the White House class posing for a New Year's photograph with our 2008 glasses.

OK, I can't spill any inside secrets on the campaign, so I'll try to speak in generalities. We spent most of the day canvassing. At one point I actually met someone that grew up in my hometown, Akron, Ohio, who graduated from the same high school as my dad. Small world, huh? I even had the opportunity to use some of my Spanish language skills in Nashua when speaking with some voters. I must say that canvassing seemed a little awkward at first; however, after a few hours it was just like my days as a candidate pounding the shoe leather seven years ago.

After canvassing we also put yard signs all over Nashua. It was awesome the next morning to see the hundreds of signs we had all over town because of the work of our team! Senator Clinton clearly had the best presence in the entire town.

The entire class met for dinner on New Year's Eve and it was clear, after speaking to our other classmates, that the Hillary campaign was clearly the most enthusiastic, organized, and efficient operation. Furthermore, the team was very welcoming and happy to see all FIVE of us when we showed up to help!

Day One Recap - Sunday, December 30th

That's me slurping down some coffee while waiting to board the plane to Manchester, NH.


Many of my classmates were seeing snow for the first time.

I was up until about 1 am getting ready for my trip on Saturday night/Sunday morning and woke up at 5:30 am to get ready to go to the airport. About 10 minutes down the road, I realized that I forgot my computer power cord so I had to turn back and get it. Check-in went in well and the security line wasn't so bad. Before I knew it the plane had landed in New Hampshire. I immediately went outside to see what the weather was like and it wasn't too bad... about 30 degrees and not too much wind. Me and another classmate, Emilio, befriended a fellow college student from New Hampshire with the intention of converting her to Hillary, but we didn't have to do it because she was already on our side; we weren't wasting any time getting to work :)

After settling into the hotel we went to Walmart to pick up some necessities: gloves, water, soda, etc. Later that night we all had dinner as a class and then hung out, chatted about politics, etc. Most of us were exhausted from the long day and called it a night early after trying to make snowmen and getting into some snowball fights. Many of my classmates were seeing snow for the first time.

My bags are packed and I'm just tying up some loose ends

So I think I am finally ready to start my trek to "The Granite State"! I have never packed so much for one trip in my life! I'm probably going to be having 12-15 hour days for most of my time there and I don't want to spend any time in a laundromat; for this reason I sucked it up and bought a lot of warm clothes.

Lucky for me (I guess), I spent 4 days in northeast Ohio over the past week and I got a little taste of Mother Nature during my time there. I shouldn't be that shocked when I get to New Hampshire; in fact, it should feel significantly warmer than when I arrived in Cleveland last Sunday night.

I am ready to do whatever is asked of me over the next 10 days to make sure that Senator Clinton has the best possible chance to win the New Hampshire primary and the Democratic nomination. I expect that I will be doing a little bit of everything during this time: visibility, door-to-door, phone banking, and whatever else they could possibly need from me. Whatever they need, I am their guy!

I already have a great deal of experience in retail politics, having already been a candidate myself in the past; however, I am really looking forward to seeing retail politicking in the context of presidential politics. It is really hard to comprehend that there is such a battle in the trenches for a relatively small number of votes. It should be fun to watch and participate in the process.

Next time I post I will be in New Hampshire! GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HILLLLLLLLLLLLARY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why I am supporting Hillary Clinton for President

I know it is a bit of a cliche to say that this election is the most important one in our lives; however, I firmly believe that this is the case. The world is a very dangerous place, our position of leadership in the world has eroded, our civil liberties have come under assault, and our nation's long-term financial position is in peril. The stakes are higher than they have ever been and this election could be the pivotal point which determines whether we reassert our position of leadership in the world or assume the role of an empire in decline.

I believe that Hillary Clinton is the best equipped candidate to restore our reputation around the world, protect our civil liberties, and put the nation back on sound financial footing after seven years of reckless governance.

There are other Democrats that I believe could also do this job well; I believe Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Bill Richardson would all make excellent presidents.

Knew this ad was coming as soon as I read the endorsement...

Excellent ad! I think this is one of the best her ad team has put together so far this year. Thanks you Des Moines Register!

The State of the Primary Races in Both Parties

I haven't written any analysis since the Republican YouTube debate. I think it is about time that I make an assessment of the race on both sides about where the race stands at this point.

THE DEMOCRATS

Clearly, Obama and Edwards have been on the move in Iowa, and, to a lesser extent, Obama has been making a move in New Hampshire as well. Although it appears that a few outliers show either Hillary Clinton or John Edwards in the lead in Iowa, the majority of polls in Iowa show Obama with a slight lead in the state. Bill Richardson and Joe Biden have been confined to the low single digits. (Link to Iowa polling data)

I can't say that I am surprised that it has become this tight in Iowa. Heck, Obama is practically the "favorite son" due to the fact that he is a U.S. Senator from neighboring Illinois. Furthermore, Edwards has staked his entire campaign on Iowa. If he fails to win there, he might as well drop out the next morning because his campaign is going nowhere without a win in the Hawkeye state.

I do find it interesting that Obama and Edwards have exchanged some barbs in recent days, a fact which may open the door for Senator Clinton to climb back to the top of the heap. (It has been suggested many times that Iowans dislike negative campaigns and Obama's rise could be, at least partially, attributed to the dust-up between Clinton and Edwards a few debates ago.)

Only time will tell how this will play out; this race is currently in flux and a few thousand caucusgoers in Iowa will determine who gets the springboard into New Hampshire. I am inclined to say that Senator Clinton will pull this one out; regardless, I firmly believe that she is the only candidate of the three who can recover from a loss in this early state. Illinois is probably the only other state where Obama polls this well or better and Edwards has virtually no organization beyond Iowa. Nationally, Senator Clinton still polls roughly 17 points better than Obama and 30 points in front of Edwards. Surely this would diminish somewhat if she takes a loss in one or more early primaries, but she is the only one with a chance to recover from an early defeat. (Link to national polls.)

THE REPUBLICANS

Before I go any further, let me first say that I think that the Giuliani campaign has made a big tactical mistake in recent weeks. They have practically pulled out of both Iowa and New Hampshire, acknowledging that they would probably go down to defeat in those states. As a result, they have left the door wide open for the reemergence of John McCain. Here's how I see things shaking out.

First, Mike Huckabee will probably win the Iowa caucuses. This will be a devastating blow to Mitt Romney; perhaps it will be fatal. As I mentioned after the YouTube debate, I see the crumbling of Romney's support in New Hampshire if this happens. Typically, one would think that, after receiving tons of free media in the days after the caucuses, Mike Huckabee would be the beneficiary of a huge New Hampshire bounce. But I'm not so sure about that. Despite moving up near the lead nationally, Huckabee has been stuck around 10% in New Hampshire for the last three weeks. Furthermore, his message is not one which typically resonates with New Hampshire voters.

So, who's going to capitalize on Romney's hemorraging? Let's see...Rudy Giuliani left town (biggest mistake by any candidate this year), Fred Thompson is now running at 1-4% in New Hampshire, Ron Paul probably has a cap on his support due to his position on the war...is there anyone left? Oh yeah, there is...the guy who won the last wide-open New Hampshire primary...the guy who has been rising in the polls across the state...the guy who probably qualifies to vote there by now...John McCain! The Manchester Union Leader (one of the most conservative papers in the nation), The Boston Globe (a very liberal paper), and the Portsmouth, NH paper have all endorsed him in the past week or so; Senator Joe Lieberman has crossed the aisle to lend his support as well. His crowds around the state have been growing. If Romney falls apart, McCain is the guy who will take the New Hampshire primary. His polling numbers are on the move and a poll just released today puts him within 4 percentage points of Mitt Romney. (Link to New Hampshire polls.)

At this point, Romney will be finished, Thompson will have suffered two humiliating defeats, and Giuliani will have been off the radar and out of media coverage for several weeks. Historically, the winner of at least two of these three states has won the Republican nomination: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. If I am right and Huckabee and McCain are the two men left standing, we're going to see one heck of a showdown in South Carolina, home to a large population of military retirees and religious conservatives. I have a hunch that McCain would pull this one out, but I feel particularly strong in suggesting that Huckabee or McCain will be the Republican nominee at this point. The only thing that could reshuffle this deck would be a Romney win in Iowa.

One other interesting note: a recent poll in Iowa, conducted a few days after the Des Moines Register's endorsement of John McCain, has put the Senator in third place in Iowa with 14%. If Huckabee edges out Romney by a thin margin and John McCain runs a decent third, I think this race is over. If, after denouncing ethanol subsidies and repeatedly refusing to kowtow to Iowans' demands for attention, McCain runs third, he may be the story out of Iowa. If John McCain is the story out of Iowa, forget everything I said about South Carolina. The race for the Republican nomination is over.

The Des Moines Register gets it right!

From Sunday's editorial page...

"Indeed, Obama, her chief rival, inspired our imaginations. But it was Clinton who inspired our confidence. Each time we met, she impressed us with her knowledge and her competence.

The times demand results. We believe as president she'll do what she's always done in her life: Throw herself into the job and work hard. We believe Hillary Rodham Clinton can do great things for our country."

Read the full endorsement here.

Another Neil Young video with a political message

This is another one of the Neil Young tunes I like off of his album "Living With War". In fact, if you don't know the presidents in order, just watch this video enough times and you'll have them down quick enough.

A great song and video from one of my favorite artists, Neil Young

I guess I should preface this by saying that I do not support impeachment; nevertheless, I think this Neil Young song, "Let's Impeach the President", is pretty sweet. There are a lot of clips of President Bush lying and/or changing his tune. The song is very effective at reminding me why George W. Bush is a failure, although I don't really need the reminder :)

A little punditry from a former Republican...

I have to say that I was really amused by the Republican YouTube debate. I really hope this format has some staying power in the future. I have read a few op-ed pieces recently that have attacked this format as demeaning to the presidency, dumbed down debate, etc., but I see things completely differently. While the host, in this case CNN, determines which videos are aired, they are forced to consider different types of questions based on what they receive from users. The YouTube experience also causes the candidates to answer a real person asking about an issue that directly affects their life. I think the answers that candidates give in these situations give us a chance to size up each candidate as a person too. It's hard to give canned responses and I think we saw some candidates last night who were clearly having trouble speaking extemporaneously about the plethora of issues which concerned the questioners.

There was one clear winner last night, Mike Huckabee. To a lesser extent, I would suggest the Rudy Giuliani was a winner too, mainly due to the fact that Mitt Romney was the big loser.

I was really surprised to see Rudy and Mitt get into a bare-knuckles brawl in the first 2 minutes of the debate and I think it rattled them both. For much of the night, the two of them were bickering and Mike Huckabee was virtually untouched. In the meantime, Huckabee shined in this format. He showed his skill as a politician when it came to questions such as the Bible one and he did a great job at keeping his composure and making good points about the brief attack on him about giving in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants. (His answer was something to the affect of "we shouldn't punish children for their parents' crimes.")

Romney was clearly the big loser. Giuliani scored points on his claim that the former governor had a "sanctuary mansion"; furthermore, Romney proceeded to fumble several other questions. As a result, despite a really mediocre performance, Giuliani comes out a winner too.

So why is Giuliani a winner in this? Well, it looks like Huckabee may be well on his way to winning the Iowa caucuses. A new poll of Iowa caucusgoers has Huckabee in the lead for the first time; according to the poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, Huckabee now leads Romney by a mark of 28% to 25%. It is a good distance back to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson at 12% and 11% respectively. If Huckabee pulls off the Iowa victory, Romney's campaign may be mortally wounded.

But... what happens in New Hampshire after a Huckabee win in Iowa? Well, this is where it gets dicey. A Huckabee win in Iowa probably tosses the race into total chaos. With Romney likely plummeting in the polls, the question becomes who will pick up the pieces?

Huckabee will get a lot of free media in the 5 days between Iowa and New Hampshire; his numbers will certainly rise... but how much? Social conservativism is not a big selling point with New Hampshire Republicans. Even when social conservatives have done well in New Hampshire (i.e. Pat Buchanan in '92 and '96 and Reagan in '80), the abortion issue was not the pivotal one. In the 1996 Buchanan example, the candidate tapped into anger about illegal immigration to win the primary. In 1992, Buchanan won about 40% of the primary vote against a sitting president pushing taxes and the economy. Huckabee's signature issues, social conservativism and family values, aren't big sellers in New Hampshire. Furthermore, his history of spending typically is not the type which will resonate with New Hampshire conservatives.

I don't think there is a Republican candidate in New Hampshire that can tap into Republican discontent at this point; as a result I don't think there is any way to predict what happens following a Huckabee win in Iowa, other than to say that Romney may implode. If that happens we may end up with a legitimate four- or five-way race up in the Granite State. The candidate with the hot-button issues on his side is Ron Paul, but the war is not terribly unpopular with the base. Maybe he can make some noise if mass numbers of Independents take the Republican ballot, but I don't think he can win the primary; even if he won the Republican primary in NH, it would only turn the race into one of greater chaos.

My hunch is that John McCain would probably be the biggest beneficiary if Romney's support implodes in New Hampshire. He did capture roughly 49% of the vote in the 2000 primary and he outperformed all of the pre-election polls which showed him deadlocked with Bush in the state. After all of his troubles this past summer, he has managed to creep back up a bit in national polls.

It's still just too dicey to say what will happen if Huckabee wins Iowa but I think that it is looking very likely to happen at this point. I think we will be left with a very chaotic and fragmented race. It should definitely be fun to watch. Anyone dare to say... brokered convention?

Going to a Debate Watch Party Tonight!

CNN was on campus yesterday because tonight's Republican YouTube debate is being held in a facility adjacent to our campus (USF-St. Pete). It was nice to see them giving encouragement to students to participate in the political process.

Tonight I am going to a debate watch party sponsored by the university's Center for Civic Engagement. I'm getting a little extra credit for going, which is always nice; I am particularly happy about it too because it is like I am getting paid for doing something I was already going to do. I always get a kick out of Ron Paul schooling the children about the Constitution, deficits, foreign policy, and the dollar. Mike Huckabee usually has some good comedic material too.

Other than that, I expect to hear a lot of BS from the other candidates.

The BEST of George W. Bush!

This is one of the great collections of George W. Bush's gaffes and butchering of the English language. I particularly enjoy the part about Jeb, crabs, the '72 Dolphins, and Dan Marino's "dynamic" wife!

Richard Nixon on Fred Thompson's intelligence (or lack thereof)!

What a great find! Richard Nixon refers to Fred Thompson as dumb and later is relieved that the dummy is carrying water for him in the whole Watergate fiasco. Well, I would think this would hurt Thompson, except for the fact that we have elected at least one dumb president since that time and he's still in office.

Hillary's BEST ad so far this campaign season!

Ads that are 100% positive usually aren't much fun in my opinion, so I definitely enjoyed the shots she took at the president and his disregard for the American people. Sometimes I feel as if all of America is invisible to this administration, with the exception of his cronies in office and former business associates. Way to go Hill at telling it like it is!

One of the first ads to go on-air for Sen. Clinton

I am not going to post every ad released by the Clinton campaign, but I am going to put up some of my favorites. This ad, believed to be the first ran by the campaign in New Hampshire, is one of the best positive spots I have seen in a while. Enjoy!

A really good moment in the debate at Dartmouth!

By most accounts, Sen. Clinton had a rough time in the debate at Dartmouth college a few weeks back, but this was one of her shining moments. Tim Russert thought he had a gotcha moment when he pointed out how she and former-President Clinton disagreed on an issue, but he was wrong. Hillary got the best of him in this clip!