A little punditry from a former Republican...

I have to say that I was really amused by the Republican YouTube debate. I really hope this format has some staying power in the future. I have read a few op-ed pieces recently that have attacked this format as demeaning to the presidency, dumbed down debate, etc., but I see things completely differently. While the host, in this case CNN, determines which videos are aired, they are forced to consider different types of questions based on what they receive from users. The YouTube experience also causes the candidates to answer a real person asking about an issue that directly affects their life. I think the answers that candidates give in these situations give us a chance to size up each candidate as a person too. It's hard to give canned responses and I think we saw some candidates last night who were clearly having trouble speaking extemporaneously about the plethora of issues which concerned the questioners.

There was one clear winner last night, Mike Huckabee. To a lesser extent, I would suggest the Rudy Giuliani was a winner too, mainly due to the fact that Mitt Romney was the big loser.

I was really surprised to see Rudy and Mitt get into a bare-knuckles brawl in the first 2 minutes of the debate and I think it rattled them both. For much of the night, the two of them were bickering and Mike Huckabee was virtually untouched. In the meantime, Huckabee shined in this format. He showed his skill as a politician when it came to questions such as the Bible one and he did a great job at keeping his composure and making good points about the brief attack on him about giving in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants. (His answer was something to the affect of "we shouldn't punish children for their parents' crimes.")

Romney was clearly the big loser. Giuliani scored points on his claim that the former governor had a "sanctuary mansion"; furthermore, Romney proceeded to fumble several other questions. As a result, despite a really mediocre performance, Giuliani comes out a winner too.

So why is Giuliani a winner in this? Well, it looks like Huckabee may be well on his way to winning the Iowa caucuses. A new poll of Iowa caucusgoers has Huckabee in the lead for the first time; according to the poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, Huckabee now leads Romney by a mark of 28% to 25%. It is a good distance back to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson at 12% and 11% respectively. If Huckabee pulls off the Iowa victory, Romney's campaign may be mortally wounded.

But... what happens in New Hampshire after a Huckabee win in Iowa? Well, this is where it gets dicey. A Huckabee win in Iowa probably tosses the race into total chaos. With Romney likely plummeting in the polls, the question becomes who will pick up the pieces?

Huckabee will get a lot of free media in the 5 days between Iowa and New Hampshire; his numbers will certainly rise... but how much? Social conservativism is not a big selling point with New Hampshire Republicans. Even when social conservatives have done well in New Hampshire (i.e. Pat Buchanan in '92 and '96 and Reagan in '80), the abortion issue was not the pivotal one. In the 1996 Buchanan example, the candidate tapped into anger about illegal immigration to win the primary. In 1992, Buchanan won about 40% of the primary vote against a sitting president pushing taxes and the economy. Huckabee's signature issues, social conservativism and family values, aren't big sellers in New Hampshire. Furthermore, his history of spending typically is not the type which will resonate with New Hampshire conservatives.

I don't think there is a Republican candidate in New Hampshire that can tap into Republican discontent at this point; as a result I don't think there is any way to predict what happens following a Huckabee win in Iowa, other than to say that Romney may implode. If that happens we may end up with a legitimate four- or five-way race up in the Granite State. The candidate with the hot-button issues on his side is Ron Paul, but the war is not terribly unpopular with the base. Maybe he can make some noise if mass numbers of Independents take the Republican ballot, but I don't think he can win the primary; even if he won the Republican primary in NH, it would only turn the race into one of greater chaos.

My hunch is that John McCain would probably be the biggest beneficiary if Romney's support implodes in New Hampshire. He did capture roughly 49% of the vote in the 2000 primary and he outperformed all of the pre-election polls which showed him deadlocked with Bush in the state. After all of his troubles this past summer, he has managed to creep back up a bit in national polls.

It's still just too dicey to say what will happen if Huckabee wins Iowa but I think that it is looking very likely to happen at this point. I think we will be left with a very chaotic and fragmented race. It should definitely be fun to watch. Anyone dare to say... brokered convention?