The State of the Primary Races in Both Parties

I haven't written any analysis since the Republican YouTube debate. I think it is about time that I make an assessment of the race on both sides about where the race stands at this point.

THE DEMOCRATS

Clearly, Obama and Edwards have been on the move in Iowa, and, to a lesser extent, Obama has been making a move in New Hampshire as well. Although it appears that a few outliers show either Hillary Clinton or John Edwards in the lead in Iowa, the majority of polls in Iowa show Obama with a slight lead in the state. Bill Richardson and Joe Biden have been confined to the low single digits. (Link to Iowa polling data)

I can't say that I am surprised that it has become this tight in Iowa. Heck, Obama is practically the "favorite son" due to the fact that he is a U.S. Senator from neighboring Illinois. Furthermore, Edwards has staked his entire campaign on Iowa. If he fails to win there, he might as well drop out the next morning because his campaign is going nowhere without a win in the Hawkeye state.

I do find it interesting that Obama and Edwards have exchanged some barbs in recent days, a fact which may open the door for Senator Clinton to climb back to the top of the heap. (It has been suggested many times that Iowans dislike negative campaigns and Obama's rise could be, at least partially, attributed to the dust-up between Clinton and Edwards a few debates ago.)

Only time will tell how this will play out; this race is currently in flux and a few thousand caucusgoers in Iowa will determine who gets the springboard into New Hampshire. I am inclined to say that Senator Clinton will pull this one out; regardless, I firmly believe that she is the only candidate of the three who can recover from a loss in this early state. Illinois is probably the only other state where Obama polls this well or better and Edwards has virtually no organization beyond Iowa. Nationally, Senator Clinton still polls roughly 17 points better than Obama and 30 points in front of Edwards. Surely this would diminish somewhat if she takes a loss in one or more early primaries, but she is the only one with a chance to recover from an early defeat. (Link to national polls.)

THE REPUBLICANS

Before I go any further, let me first say that I think that the Giuliani campaign has made a big tactical mistake in recent weeks. They have practically pulled out of both Iowa and New Hampshire, acknowledging that they would probably go down to defeat in those states. As a result, they have left the door wide open for the reemergence of John McCain. Here's how I see things shaking out.

First, Mike Huckabee will probably win the Iowa caucuses. This will be a devastating blow to Mitt Romney; perhaps it will be fatal. As I mentioned after the YouTube debate, I see the crumbling of Romney's support in New Hampshire if this happens. Typically, one would think that, after receiving tons of free media in the days after the caucuses, Mike Huckabee would be the beneficiary of a huge New Hampshire bounce. But I'm not so sure about that. Despite moving up near the lead nationally, Huckabee has been stuck around 10% in New Hampshire for the last three weeks. Furthermore, his message is not one which typically resonates with New Hampshire voters.

So, who's going to capitalize on Romney's hemorraging? Let's see...Rudy Giuliani left town (biggest mistake by any candidate this year), Fred Thompson is now running at 1-4% in New Hampshire, Ron Paul probably has a cap on his support due to his position on the war...is there anyone left? Oh yeah, there is...the guy who won the last wide-open New Hampshire primary...the guy who has been rising in the polls across the state...the guy who probably qualifies to vote there by now...John McCain! The Manchester Union Leader (one of the most conservative papers in the nation), The Boston Globe (a very liberal paper), and the Portsmouth, NH paper have all endorsed him in the past week or so; Senator Joe Lieberman has crossed the aisle to lend his support as well. His crowds around the state have been growing. If Romney falls apart, McCain is the guy who will take the New Hampshire primary. His polling numbers are on the move and a poll just released today puts him within 4 percentage points of Mitt Romney. (Link to New Hampshire polls.)

At this point, Romney will be finished, Thompson will have suffered two humiliating defeats, and Giuliani will have been off the radar and out of media coverage for several weeks. Historically, the winner of at least two of these three states has won the Republican nomination: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. If I am right and Huckabee and McCain are the two men left standing, we're going to see one heck of a showdown in South Carolina, home to a large population of military retirees and religious conservatives. I have a hunch that McCain would pull this one out, but I feel particularly strong in suggesting that Huckabee or McCain will be the Republican nominee at this point. The only thing that could reshuffle this deck would be a Romney win in Iowa.

One other interesting note: a recent poll in Iowa, conducted a few days after the Des Moines Register's endorsement of John McCain, has put the Senator in third place in Iowa with 14%. If Huckabee edges out Romney by a thin margin and John McCain runs a decent third, I think this race is over. If, after denouncing ethanol subsidies and repeatedly refusing to kowtow to Iowans' demands for attention, McCain runs third, he may be the story out of Iowa. If John McCain is the story out of Iowa, forget everything I said about South Carolina. The race for the Republican nomination is over.