My bags are packed and I'm just tying up some loose ends

So I think I am finally ready to start my trek to "The Granite State"! I have never packed so much for one trip in my life! I'm probably going to be having 12-15 hour days for most of my time there and I don't want to spend any time in a laundromat; for this reason I sucked it up and bought a lot of warm clothes.

Lucky for me (I guess), I spent 4 days in northeast Ohio over the past week and I got a little taste of Mother Nature during my time there. I shouldn't be that shocked when I get to New Hampshire; in fact, it should feel significantly warmer than when I arrived in Cleveland last Sunday night.

I am ready to do whatever is asked of me over the next 10 days to make sure that Senator Clinton has the best possible chance to win the New Hampshire primary and the Democratic nomination. I expect that I will be doing a little bit of everything during this time: visibility, door-to-door, phone banking, and whatever else they could possibly need from me. Whatever they need, I am their guy!

I already have a great deal of experience in retail politics, having already been a candidate myself in the past; however, I am really looking forward to seeing retail politicking in the context of presidential politics. It is really hard to comprehend that there is such a battle in the trenches for a relatively small number of votes. It should be fun to watch and participate in the process.

Next time I post I will be in New Hampshire! GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HILLLLLLLLLLLLARY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why I am supporting Hillary Clinton for President

I know it is a bit of a cliche to say that this election is the most important one in our lives; however, I firmly believe that this is the case. The world is a very dangerous place, our position of leadership in the world has eroded, our civil liberties have come under assault, and our nation's long-term financial position is in peril. The stakes are higher than they have ever been and this election could be the pivotal point which determines whether we reassert our position of leadership in the world or assume the role of an empire in decline.

I believe that Hillary Clinton is the best equipped candidate to restore our reputation around the world, protect our civil liberties, and put the nation back on sound financial footing after seven years of reckless governance.

There are other Democrats that I believe could also do this job well; I believe Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Bill Richardson would all make excellent presidents.

Knew this ad was coming as soon as I read the endorsement...

Excellent ad! I think this is one of the best her ad team has put together so far this year. Thanks you Des Moines Register!

The State of the Primary Races in Both Parties

I haven't written any analysis since the Republican YouTube debate. I think it is about time that I make an assessment of the race on both sides about where the race stands at this point.

THE DEMOCRATS

Clearly, Obama and Edwards have been on the move in Iowa, and, to a lesser extent, Obama has been making a move in New Hampshire as well. Although it appears that a few outliers show either Hillary Clinton or John Edwards in the lead in Iowa, the majority of polls in Iowa show Obama with a slight lead in the state. Bill Richardson and Joe Biden have been confined to the low single digits. (Link to Iowa polling data)

I can't say that I am surprised that it has become this tight in Iowa. Heck, Obama is practically the "favorite son" due to the fact that he is a U.S. Senator from neighboring Illinois. Furthermore, Edwards has staked his entire campaign on Iowa. If he fails to win there, he might as well drop out the next morning because his campaign is going nowhere without a win in the Hawkeye state.

I do find it interesting that Obama and Edwards have exchanged some barbs in recent days, a fact which may open the door for Senator Clinton to climb back to the top of the heap. (It has been suggested many times that Iowans dislike negative campaigns and Obama's rise could be, at least partially, attributed to the dust-up between Clinton and Edwards a few debates ago.)

Only time will tell how this will play out; this race is currently in flux and a few thousand caucusgoers in Iowa will determine who gets the springboard into New Hampshire. I am inclined to say that Senator Clinton will pull this one out; regardless, I firmly believe that she is the only candidate of the three who can recover from a loss in this early state. Illinois is probably the only other state where Obama polls this well or better and Edwards has virtually no organization beyond Iowa. Nationally, Senator Clinton still polls roughly 17 points better than Obama and 30 points in front of Edwards. Surely this would diminish somewhat if she takes a loss in one or more early primaries, but she is the only one with a chance to recover from an early defeat. (Link to national polls.)

THE REPUBLICANS

Before I go any further, let me first say that I think that the Giuliani campaign has made a big tactical mistake in recent weeks. They have practically pulled out of both Iowa and New Hampshire, acknowledging that they would probably go down to defeat in those states. As a result, they have left the door wide open for the reemergence of John McCain. Here's how I see things shaking out.

First, Mike Huckabee will probably win the Iowa caucuses. This will be a devastating blow to Mitt Romney; perhaps it will be fatal. As I mentioned after the YouTube debate, I see the crumbling of Romney's support in New Hampshire if this happens. Typically, one would think that, after receiving tons of free media in the days after the caucuses, Mike Huckabee would be the beneficiary of a huge New Hampshire bounce. But I'm not so sure about that. Despite moving up near the lead nationally, Huckabee has been stuck around 10% in New Hampshire for the last three weeks. Furthermore, his message is not one which typically resonates with New Hampshire voters.

So, who's going to capitalize on Romney's hemorraging? Let's see...Rudy Giuliani left town (biggest mistake by any candidate this year), Fred Thompson is now running at 1-4% in New Hampshire, Ron Paul probably has a cap on his support due to his position on the war...is there anyone left? Oh yeah, there is...the guy who won the last wide-open New Hampshire primary...the guy who has been rising in the polls across the state...the guy who probably qualifies to vote there by now...John McCain! The Manchester Union Leader (one of the most conservative papers in the nation), The Boston Globe (a very liberal paper), and the Portsmouth, NH paper have all endorsed him in the past week or so; Senator Joe Lieberman has crossed the aisle to lend his support as well. His crowds around the state have been growing. If Romney falls apart, McCain is the guy who will take the New Hampshire primary. His polling numbers are on the move and a poll just released today puts him within 4 percentage points of Mitt Romney. (Link to New Hampshire polls.)

At this point, Romney will be finished, Thompson will have suffered two humiliating defeats, and Giuliani will have been off the radar and out of media coverage for several weeks. Historically, the winner of at least two of these three states has won the Republican nomination: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. If I am right and Huckabee and McCain are the two men left standing, we're going to see one heck of a showdown in South Carolina, home to a large population of military retirees and religious conservatives. I have a hunch that McCain would pull this one out, but I feel particularly strong in suggesting that Huckabee or McCain will be the Republican nominee at this point. The only thing that could reshuffle this deck would be a Romney win in Iowa.

One other interesting note: a recent poll in Iowa, conducted a few days after the Des Moines Register's endorsement of John McCain, has put the Senator in third place in Iowa with 14%. If Huckabee edges out Romney by a thin margin and John McCain runs a decent third, I think this race is over. If, after denouncing ethanol subsidies and repeatedly refusing to kowtow to Iowans' demands for attention, McCain runs third, he may be the story out of Iowa. If John McCain is the story out of Iowa, forget everything I said about South Carolina. The race for the Republican nomination is over.

The Des Moines Register gets it right!

From Sunday's editorial page...

"Indeed, Obama, her chief rival, inspired our imaginations. But it was Clinton who inspired our confidence. Each time we met, she impressed us with her knowledge and her competence.

The times demand results. We believe as president she'll do what she's always done in her life: Throw herself into the job and work hard. We believe Hillary Rodham Clinton can do great things for our country."

Read the full endorsement here.

Another Neil Young video with a political message

This is another one of the Neil Young tunes I like off of his album "Living With War". In fact, if you don't know the presidents in order, just watch this video enough times and you'll have them down quick enough.

A great song and video from one of my favorite artists, Neil Young

I guess I should preface this by saying that I do not support impeachment; nevertheless, I think this Neil Young song, "Let's Impeach the President", is pretty sweet. There are a lot of clips of President Bush lying and/or changing his tune. The song is very effective at reminding me why George W. Bush is a failure, although I don't really need the reminder :)

A little punditry from a former Republican...

I have to say that I was really amused by the Republican YouTube debate. I really hope this format has some staying power in the future. I have read a few op-ed pieces recently that have attacked this format as demeaning to the presidency, dumbed down debate, etc., but I see things completely differently. While the host, in this case CNN, determines which videos are aired, they are forced to consider different types of questions based on what they receive from users. The YouTube experience also causes the candidates to answer a real person asking about an issue that directly affects their life. I think the answers that candidates give in these situations give us a chance to size up each candidate as a person too. It's hard to give canned responses and I think we saw some candidates last night who were clearly having trouble speaking extemporaneously about the plethora of issues which concerned the questioners.

There was one clear winner last night, Mike Huckabee. To a lesser extent, I would suggest the Rudy Giuliani was a winner too, mainly due to the fact that Mitt Romney was the big loser.

I was really surprised to see Rudy and Mitt get into a bare-knuckles brawl in the first 2 minutes of the debate and I think it rattled them both. For much of the night, the two of them were bickering and Mike Huckabee was virtually untouched. In the meantime, Huckabee shined in this format. He showed his skill as a politician when it came to questions such as the Bible one and he did a great job at keeping his composure and making good points about the brief attack on him about giving in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants. (His answer was something to the affect of "we shouldn't punish children for their parents' crimes.")

Romney was clearly the big loser. Giuliani scored points on his claim that the former governor had a "sanctuary mansion"; furthermore, Romney proceeded to fumble several other questions. As a result, despite a really mediocre performance, Giuliani comes out a winner too.

So why is Giuliani a winner in this? Well, it looks like Huckabee may be well on his way to winning the Iowa caucuses. A new poll of Iowa caucusgoers has Huckabee in the lead for the first time; according to the poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, Huckabee now leads Romney by a mark of 28% to 25%. It is a good distance back to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson at 12% and 11% respectively. If Huckabee pulls off the Iowa victory, Romney's campaign may be mortally wounded.

But... what happens in New Hampshire after a Huckabee win in Iowa? Well, this is where it gets dicey. A Huckabee win in Iowa probably tosses the race into total chaos. With Romney likely plummeting in the polls, the question becomes who will pick up the pieces?

Huckabee will get a lot of free media in the 5 days between Iowa and New Hampshire; his numbers will certainly rise... but how much? Social conservativism is not a big selling point with New Hampshire Republicans. Even when social conservatives have done well in New Hampshire (i.e. Pat Buchanan in '92 and '96 and Reagan in '80), the abortion issue was not the pivotal one. In the 1996 Buchanan example, the candidate tapped into anger about illegal immigration to win the primary. In 1992, Buchanan won about 40% of the primary vote against a sitting president pushing taxes and the economy. Huckabee's signature issues, social conservativism and family values, aren't big sellers in New Hampshire. Furthermore, his history of spending typically is not the type which will resonate with New Hampshire conservatives.

I don't think there is a Republican candidate in New Hampshire that can tap into Republican discontent at this point; as a result I don't think there is any way to predict what happens following a Huckabee win in Iowa, other than to say that Romney may implode. If that happens we may end up with a legitimate four- or five-way race up in the Granite State. The candidate with the hot-button issues on his side is Ron Paul, but the war is not terribly unpopular with the base. Maybe he can make some noise if mass numbers of Independents take the Republican ballot, but I don't think he can win the primary; even if he won the Republican primary in NH, it would only turn the race into one of greater chaos.

My hunch is that John McCain would probably be the biggest beneficiary if Romney's support implodes in New Hampshire. He did capture roughly 49% of the vote in the 2000 primary and he outperformed all of the pre-election polls which showed him deadlocked with Bush in the state. After all of his troubles this past summer, he has managed to creep back up a bit in national polls.

It's still just too dicey to say what will happen if Huckabee wins Iowa but I think that it is looking very likely to happen at this point. I think we will be left with a very chaotic and fragmented race. It should definitely be fun to watch. Anyone dare to say... brokered convention?

Going to a Debate Watch Party Tonight!

CNN was on campus yesterday because tonight's Republican YouTube debate is being held in a facility adjacent to our campus (USF-St. Pete). It was nice to see them giving encouragement to students to participate in the political process.

Tonight I am going to a debate watch party sponsored by the university's Center for Civic Engagement. I'm getting a little extra credit for going, which is always nice; I am particularly happy about it too because it is like I am getting paid for doing something I was already going to do. I always get a kick out of Ron Paul schooling the children about the Constitution, deficits, foreign policy, and the dollar. Mike Huckabee usually has some good comedic material too.

Other than that, I expect to hear a lot of BS from the other candidates.

The BEST of George W. Bush!

This is one of the great collections of George W. Bush's gaffes and butchering of the English language. I particularly enjoy the part about Jeb, crabs, the '72 Dolphins, and Dan Marino's "dynamic" wife!

Richard Nixon on Fred Thompson's intelligence (or lack thereof)!

What a great find! Richard Nixon refers to Fred Thompson as dumb and later is relieved that the dummy is carrying water for him in the whole Watergate fiasco. Well, I would think this would hurt Thompson, except for the fact that we have elected at least one dumb president since that time and he's still in office.

Hillary's BEST ad so far this campaign season!

Ads that are 100% positive usually aren't much fun in my opinion, so I definitely enjoyed the shots she took at the president and his disregard for the American people. Sometimes I feel as if all of America is invisible to this administration, with the exception of his cronies in office and former business associates. Way to go Hill at telling it like it is!

One of the first ads to go on-air for Sen. Clinton

I am not going to post every ad released by the Clinton campaign, but I am going to put up some of my favorites. This ad, believed to be the first ran by the campaign in New Hampshire, is one of the best positive spots I have seen in a while. Enjoy!

A really good moment in the debate at Dartmouth!

By most accounts, Sen. Clinton had a rough time in the debate at Dartmouth college a few weeks back, but this was one of her shining moments. Tim Russert thought he had a gotcha moment when he pointed out how she and former-President Clinton disagreed on an issue, but he was wrong. Hillary got the best of him in this clip!

If abuse of the English language was a high crime...

George W. Bush would have been impeached! This video, one of my all-time favorites, shows clips of Bush's numerous abuses of the English language. I still can't believe that I voted for this guy the first time. WTF was I thinking?